In other words, firms were collectively anticipating much greater reallocations of labour across the economy compared with the pre-COVID period. Such a reallocation process is never frictionless. When looking at past shocks, they noted that there can be a lag between the destruction side of the reallocation process and the creation side Pre-COVID Data Shows Total Household Debt Increased in Q1 , Though Growth in Non-Housing Debt Slows May 4, New York Fed Releases Additional Information on Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities in Preparation for Series of May Launches Before you even write down your speech for your daughter and son-in-law, you first have to watch a couple of videos to help you get a crystal-clear idea of how mother of the bride speeches are made. Well, I looked around and found these amazing mothers of the bride speech videos from YouTube
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Chair Michael Brennan provided an online briefing to the Australian Business Economists on 23 September What did he mean by this? To take you back to introductory microa Harberger triangle is the deadweight loss in a partial equilibrium diagram — the efficiency loss due to a resource misallocation, usually due to a distorting policy say a tax or regulation.
An Okun gap — to take you back to introductory macro — is the inefficiency due to the gap between actual and potential output — a consequence of inadequate aggregate demand in the Keynesian tradition. One interpretation is that when times get tough, macro dominates micro: the policy focus should be on getting demand stimulus out there, and you should worry less about whether you are causing inefficiencies or distortions in the economy along the way.
A variation on the theme would be: pre made speeches on choices is not the time to worry about distortions and inefficiency: deal with the aggregate demand crisis now, and save micro-economic reform for another day — once the recovery has been secured and life returns to some semblance of normality.
I am going to put to you an alternative view. My pre made speeches on choices is that supply side policy is an important enabler of the recovery, without which demand-side stimulus is incomplete or compromised in its effectiveness. We need to take the supply side seriously. Think of it as the micro foundations of the macro recovery. There are three main reasons why we should focus on microeconomic policy even in the midst of a recession.
But as we know, even as GDP E starts its climb back toward its March quarter levels, the underlying composition of the economy will have changed. GDP P will look different, and beneath that, so will the constellation of firms, employees, suppliers and customers; so will the deployment of physical and financial capital across the economy, the use of land and even the use of that other finite resource — time.
Because COVID is a reallocation shock, as well as a demand shock. It is a reallocation shock partly because of the inevitably staggered lifting of restrictions. And there is also the likelihood of enduring changes in consumer and business preferences, possibly in sectors like retail, travel, office accommodation and aviation.
Of course reallocation occurs all the time — even in times of relative macroeconomic stability but there is some evidence that it could be more salient in a recession like this one. Economists Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Jose Barrero 2 tried to quantify the extent of possible reallocation through the pandemic in the US, by analysing forward-looking expectations data from firms. They calculated a metric that combined the expected gross increase in hiring by growing firms, plus the expected gross job shedding by shrinking firms the majority and comparing it to the absolute value of the net change.
This provides a sense of the gross flows relative to the amounts required to give effect to the overall net change in employment. They found that this metric more than doubled in the early months of the pandemic, compared to its pre-COVID average. In other words, firms pre made speeches on choices collectively anticipating much greater reallocations of labour across the economy compared with the pre-COVID period.
Such a reallocation process is never frictionless. When looking at past shocks, they noted that there can be a lag between the destruction side of the reallocation process and the creation side. As they put it:. Reasons for the delayed creation response include the time needed to plan new enterprises and business activities, the time required to navigate regulatory hurdles and permitting processes to start or expand businesses, pre made speeches on choices, time to build in capital formation…and search and matching frictions in forming new relationships with suppliers, employees, distributors and customers.
Beneath the macro aggregates lie countless daily individual acts of risk taking and entrepreneurship: the decision to start a business, borrow, invest, expand, hire a new worker, or just change jobs. They are shaped by incentives.
These acts are the very essence of the creative process that underpins economic recovery, and it makes a material difference as to whether or not policy supports them. While empirical work on this is always imprecise — not least because it is based on historical data — there is at least one study of which I pre made speeches on choices aware, that regresses the severity of past downturns and the speed of recovery against elements of regulatory policy.
It found that economies with efficient, credible, transparent regulation experienced milder downturns and faster recoveries than those with heavier regulatory burdens. As the study notes:. Licensing requirements and similar business regulations constitute entry barriers that prevent entrepreneurs from seizing legal opportunities and thereby limiting the economic and social losses during crises.
So we need to address rigidities that prevent labour and other inputs from moving between firms, sectors and occupations. One of the areas they pre made speeches on choices at was the ability to attract mid-career professionals into teaching. The question is how you bring that about without requiring people to go back and do the equivalent of a 4-year teaching qualification designed for school leavers.
There are similar rigidities across a range of occupations, brought about by registration, licensing and qualification requirements. In general, our skills system or at least the funded element is still very focused on the initial acquisition of a full qualification. But for workers displaced by the current recession, is that always realistic? For many, the path into alternative occupations is through targeted skills acquisition at best, components of qualifications and recognition of existing knowledge and capability, pre made speeches on choices, perhaps through a system of independent assessment.
This is a complex area because context matters, so it requires a detailed look at the specifics of individual sectors to work out where and how we could remove barriers to lateral or mid-career movement. One more obvious area is occupational licensing, where our report on mutual recognition illustrated the simplicity that could come from a system of automatic recognition of licenses across states, which the Federal and State Treasurers are now working on.
Stamp duty can also be a barrier to the movement of labour to different locations, as we noted in Shifting the Dial in It can also be a barrier to using land for new and more productive economic purposes.
Of course, one policy where this comes into sharp relief is Jobkeeper. In the initial stages of the downturn, pre made speeches on choices, Jobkeeper has been very valuable in supporting businesses, and maintaining the connection of employees to the workplace. And it provided a much needed income boost as the economy weakened. But it also creates a rigidity by tying existing workers to existing firms, and a time inevitably comes when that holds back the process of recovery.
Once a reallocation process is underway, we want to make sure that labour and capital and land use are gravitating towards sectors and firms where they will be more productively employed. If reallocation led to increased concentration and market power, then this would be a bad long term outcome. My second point about the importance of a micro-economic perspective concerns risk appetite and new business formation.
Again, abstracting from aggregate investment and production, we should think hard about the supply side. In a normal year, there are around to thousand new businesses created in the Australian economy. A similar number exit — most of them not due to business failure.
As at June, we had over thousand businesses on Job Keeper, pre made speeches on choices. Many of them have also benefited from interest deferral and depending on the jurisdiction some deferral of commercial rent. They may also have been given breathing space by measures like temporary relief from insolvent trading and higher thresholds for bankruptcy proceedings.
Many will make it through, pre made speeches on choices, but logically some will not. So the question arises, how can we improve the ease with which new business can get up and running? This is all the more urgent because one possible effect of the pandemic and recession is a reappraisal of risk.
A recent paper by Kozlowski, Veldkamp and Venkateswaran 5 puts some framework around this. To over-simplify: lots of economic models incorporate risk — with economic agents facing a probability distribution over the value of some parameter or other. And if they do, then there is a form of long term scarring that occurs specifically because of changed beliefs: that is, a revision to their perception of future risk.
It could apply to the whole range of disruptions that have gone along with the pandemic — border closures, lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, rent waivers etc. Moving forward, it is possible that decision makers will face not just generalised economic uncertainty, and not just a reduced expectation about the future central scenario, but also a heightened sense of tail risk — a belief that extreme scenarios are just that little bit more likely, more believable, than they would have thought in And that could feed into their behaviour and their investment decisions.
And that is no doubt true. Some States have made significant efforts to streamline the approvals processes for new businesses — such as the Services NSW Business Concierge, and the Better Approvals program in Victorian local councils. Again, the structure of the planning system plays a part, pre made speeches on choices, since much of the delay associated with starting new businesses can be getting planning approval.
Regulation reform more broadly is important — particularly the behaviour and culture of regulators as distinct from the rules on the statute book. This is the subject of our current inquiry into regulation in the resources sector, which looks at best practice by individual regulators across the Federation. Insolvency rules could also be an important policy lever, which we examined in our report on Business Set up, Transfer and Closure. Workplace relations is another.
Giving firms and employees the space to work out arrangements that achieve their shared goals while protecting minimum conditions. One other area of policy — often neglected in this context — is the social safety net. The safety net goes beyond income support. It includes things like rent assistance and pre made speeches on choices tax benefit, but also instruments like income protection through life insurance, access to health insurance, workers compensation, pre made speeches on choices, and as we have seen in the current pandemic, superannuation.
It can also be extended to regulatory policy in areas like workplace relations or consumer protection, pre made speeches on choices. The safety net serves a redistributive goal. But that is not its only role.
It can also be an important determinant of risk appetite, as the New Zealand Productivity Commission found pre made speeches on choices its work on Technological change and the Future of Work. Just one example by way of observation: the US approach of linking health insurance to the employment relationship might sharpen work incentives, but could also dull the incentive to quit your job and start a business.
Pre made speeches on choices am not calling for any particular reform; just noting that the issue warrants closer attention in Australia as part of the policy] mix to encourage efficient risk taking. In pre made speeches on choices current pandemic, we have seen a temporary mix of risk pooling through a higher short term payment, and a form of self-insurance through access to super.
This will be a big policy question: how do we bring together the various strands of the safety net to balance the right level of redistribution with work incentives, but also to create the right incentives for efficient risk taking. A recent paper by the Queensland Productivity Commission 7 noted the importance of past micro economic reforms in building greater adaptability and resilience in the Australian and Queensland economies, especially in the face of shocks and disruptions.
Once the dust settles, we can assess how well Australia has responded and adapted to this pandemic. Calls for greater national self-sufficiency should be assessed in that light. My instinct is that there is a lot more value in building general resilience than there is in identifying and preparing for specific future contingencies. I accept there could be a bit of both.
But you can prevent bad policy, and a sound micro-economic framework is one of the best protections we have. Nowhere is this starker than in infrastructure policy. If you build things solely for demand-side stimulus, you run the risk of wasteful spending. If you do careful project assessment, pre made speeches on choices, you can boost productive capacity and aggregate demand, pre made speeches on choices.
And there is an important subtlety here: a project assessment — say a pre made speeches on choices benefit analysis — is a microeconomic tool. Recessions in Australia have been rare of late. When they do come, they can lead to policy discontinuity. After the s recession we pursued a policy of protection and regulation.
After the early s and early s recessions, pre made speeches on choices, we took a different path, combining sound macro-economic frameworks with vigorous micro economic reform.
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practical definition: 1. relating to experience, real situations, or actions rather than ideas or imagination: 2. in. Learn more What to do now Decide when to get a preapproval letter. Lenders typically check your credit before issuing a preapproval letter, and the letter may have an expiration date on it (typically 30 to 60 days). For these reasons, many people wait to get a preapproval letter until they are ready to begin shopping seriously for a home Jul 29, · I might be a TEDx speaker now who gives presentations from memory around the world, but I once had a terrible aversion to giving speeches. I was in the situation because I took a medication for manic-depression that made me shake really, really badly. Then, in a fourth-year course on Romantic-era poetry, I was supposed to give a speech
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